Family Office Review 2025:
Navigating the future
of Private Capital
and the Family Office
of Private Capital
and the Family Office
A Horizon report from EXANTE
by Renée Friedman, PhD
Global Head of Research, EXANTE
by Renée Friedman, PhD
Global Head of Research, EXANTE
This white paper is a very welcome contribution to the debate on major changes and potential solutions for family offices in a very challenging time indeed. It offers an interesting view on some of the major issues facing global family offices as they meet a world in flux, challenges which will require them to assess afresh their approaches to wealth structures and investment strategies for an emerging turbulent and, quite possibly, more hostile world in the future.
From almost every angle, both short and longer-term perspectives would reinforce the notion that we are at an important point of inflection in our affairs, after which things will be different, and through which families will experience a far wider range of outcomes — both positive and negative — than usual.
Over the past year, as the paper describes, global family offices have had to contend with rising geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainties and trade war threats posing a risk to price stability and public equities, a changing rate environment amidst sticky inflation, increased currency risk and wider market volatility due to a wide range of international and national factors. To this can be added rising costs across the board and fiscal policies with an ever-sharper focus on the wealthy as a source of income to fill annual budget gaps of substantial and expanding proportions.
Longer term issues also arise which can be seen to be related to tectonic shifts in both geopolitical and geoeconomic trends include AI and the role of technology, environmental concerns, national debt levels and domestic political turbulence add to the view that ‘more of the same will no longer be enough’ from family offices in a world of change both expected and surprising.
In addition to identifying some core issues, this paper also explores potential elements of some forward-thinking solutions that could help family offices to understand and respond to many of these great issues of our time.
We welcome its submission as a valuable contribution to the Lord Mayor of London’s first Global Family Office Summit and thank Dr Renée Friedman and her colleagues at EXANTE for their time and effort in putting these thoughts together.
From almost every angle, both short and longer-term perspectives would reinforce the notion that we are at an important point of inflection in our affairs, after which things will be different, and through which families will experience a far wider range of outcomes — both positive and negative — than usual.
Over the past year, as the paper describes, global family offices have had to contend with rising geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainties and trade war threats posing a risk to price stability and public equities, a changing rate environment amidst sticky inflation, increased currency risk and wider market volatility due to a wide range of international and national factors. To this can be added rising costs across the board and fiscal policies with an ever-sharper focus on the wealthy as a source of income to fill annual budget gaps of substantial and expanding proportions.
Longer term issues also arise which can be seen to be related to tectonic shifts in both geopolitical and geoeconomic trends include AI and the role of technology, environmental concerns, national debt levels and domestic political turbulence add to the view that ‘more of the same will no longer be enough’ from family offices in a world of change both expected and surprising.
In addition to identifying some core issues, this paper also explores potential elements of some forward-thinking solutions that could help family offices to understand and respond to many of these great issues of our time.
We welcome its submission as a valuable contribution to the Lord Mayor of London’s first Global Family Office Summit and thank Dr Renée Friedman and her colleagues at EXANTE for their time and effort in putting these thoughts together.
Mark Haynes Daniell
Chairman, Raffles Family Wealth Trust Ltd
Family Office Review 2025: Navigating the Future of Private Capital and the Family Office
The purpose of this paper is to identify the key concerns of family offices globally and to offer some perspective on measures they can take to mitigate risks, protect portfolio returns, and increase efficiency.
The world of family offices is changing rapidly. They are becoming more globally exposed not just in terms of expectations around product offerings, but also in response to a wide range of generational changes affecting both the purpose and operations of many single family offices also in terms of generational changes.
The world of family offices is changing rapidly. They are becoming more globally exposed not just in terms of expectations around product offerings, but also in response to a wide range of generational changes affecting both the purpose and operations of many single family offices also in terms of generational changes.
Renée Friedman, PhD
Editor-in-Chief at EXANTE
Editor-in-Chief at EXANTE
Economist with 20+ years experience in both public policy and private financial market sector roles.Experienced speaker and moderator including for Responsible Investor, The Economist Group, BNE Intellinews, IHS Global Insight, the United Nations, and the World Bank. Appearances on CNBC and other media.
Geopolitics, Tax Shocks, Crypto andGenerational Transition: The New Realitiesfor Global Family Wealth
Over the past year global family offices have had to contend with rising geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainties and trade war threats posing a risk to price stability and public equities, a changing rate environment amidst sticky inflation, increased currency risk and wider market volatility.
Surveys of family offices by some of the world’s leading banks and consultancies reveal:
Historic levels of uncertainty open the door for family offices, the stewards of private capital, to incorporate different assets, such as cryptocurrency products, into their portfolios in response to cost considerations tied to perceived stability and risk.
Concerns around equity valuationsand capital expenditure aside, both AI stocksand AI infrastructure are now a critical part ofthe operating systems and investment options for all families and their investment advisors. As the efficiency gains of AI are likely only to increase, family offices may consider these tools to improve the speed of analysis and execution in responseto cost sensitivities.
Generational shifts and the fourth industrial revolution may challenge family offices to be more flexible in a country like the UK, where fiscal policy change is imminent.
Surveys of family offices by some of the world’s leading banks and consultancies reveal:
Historic levels of uncertainty open the door for family offices, the stewards of private capital, to incorporate different assets, such as cryptocurrency products, into their portfolios in response to cost considerations tied to perceived stability and risk.
Concerns around equity valuationsand capital expenditure aside, both AI stocksand AI infrastructure are now a critical part ofthe operating systems and investment options for all families and their investment advisors. As the efficiency gains of AI are likely only to increase, family offices may consider these tools to improve the speed of analysis and execution in responseto cost sensitivities.
Generational shifts and the fourth industrial revolution may challenge family offices to be more flexible in a country like the UK, where fiscal policy change is imminent.
"
“…there is recognition that the current environment reflects more than short-term disruption and regardless of how tariffs evolve, the rules that have governed global markets since the end of World War II are undergoinga profound transformation.”
— BlackRock, Rewriting the rules, Family offices navigate a new world order
— BlackRock, Rewriting the rules, Family offices navigate a new world order
As control over wealth ownership transitions from one generation to the next, the owners of that wealth may, due to tax, lifestyle and other reasons, be in different locations than the first generation. They may also require a different set of assets in their portfolio holdings to accommodate the rise of new asset classes such as cryptocurrencies and related products.
This review explores the challenges facing global family offices as they build diversification and flexibilityto meet a world in flux. It also provides some suggestions on how to accommodate the shift from pax Americana to an emerging multi-polar world where wealth creation and transfers will be more geographically diverse and more digitally focussed.
What are the main concerns?
Change and transfer
Expect protectionism (and tariffs) to increase while wealth transfer brings change
In a world of shifting trade alliances and flows, formerly “safe” investment areas may actually hold higher risk than what were previously considered higher risk alternative investment areas. This may explain why, as noted by the Citi Wealth 2025 Family Office Report, global family offices kept their asset allocations largely steady in 2025, making fewer shifts than in 2024 due to the lack of clarity on trade policy.
As noted by the Goldman Sachs 2025 Family Office Investment Insights Report, Adapting to the Terrain, over the next 12 months, 77% of family offices globally expect economic protectionism to increase and 70% anticipate the average global tariff rate will be the same or higher, suggesting a perception that higher tariffs have become the new normal.
However, Citi’s report indicates that as family wealth passes to new generations, the significance of fostering family unity and continuity increases
as the scope for divergences in vision and values grows. Forty-three percent of third-generation or later family offices cited this as a focus issue compared to 32% of first-generation entities.
Additionally the changes we are seeing in migration patterns and demographics means the expected wealth transfer, according to UBS, of up to $83 trillion over the next 20 to 25 years, may result in very different portfolio allocations than may have traditionally been the case.
According to the BCG report, Asia-Pacific is forecast to lead global financial wealth expansion, with projected growth of about 9% annually through 2029—well ahead of North America (4%) and Western Europe (5%). These dynamics mean that family offices must rethink and rebalance their strategies to accommodate a more diverse group of people holding a wider range of risk profiles.
Stability, conflict and technology
Family offices need broad shoulders against
a risk-ridden geopolitical backdrop
The complexity of issues that are likely to now be worrying family offices include multi-generational tax issues, increasing cost sensitivities, ensuring adequate legal and regulatory provisions in an uncertain fiscal environment, dealing with technological advances, particularly the use of AI models in portfolios, the need for legacy family and FO education, and the impact of wider macroeconomic forces ushered in by the significant shifts in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical arena over the past year.
Geopolitical uncertainty is the leading concern for family offices, shaping their capital allocation decisions in a profound way. BlackRock’s 2025 Global Family Office Survey found that 84% of family offices cite the geopolitical landscape as increasingly critical paired with 64% looking to increase portfolio diversification in the current outlook. Goldman Sachs found that 61% of respondents thought geopolitical conflict was
the greatest investment risk today.
However, other areas of concern are also emerging. Growing fiscal dominance alongside rising domestic political instability (cited by 39% of respondents to Goldman Sachs’ poll), has intensified the complexity facing family offices. Citi Wealth found that trade disputes/tariffs were respondents’ top concern (60%), followed by US–China relations (43%) and inflation (37%). Interest rates and market volatility both stood at 30%. The stability of the global financial system was cited by 29%. Surprisingly, the Middle East conflict (14%) and the Russia–Ukraine war (9%) were perceived as lesser threats than last year (25% and 16% respectively), indicating that markets already priced them in.
a risk-ridden geopolitical backdrop
The complexity of issues that are likely to now be worrying family offices include multi-generational tax issues, increasing cost sensitivities, ensuring adequate legal and regulatory provisions in an uncertain fiscal environment, dealing with technological advances, particularly the use of AI models in portfolios, the need for legacy family and FO education, and the impact of wider macroeconomic forces ushered in by the significant shifts in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical arena over the past year.
Geopolitical uncertainty is the leading concern for family offices, shaping their capital allocation decisions in a profound way. BlackRock’s 2025 Global Family Office Survey found that 84% of family offices cite the geopolitical landscape as increasingly critical paired with 64% looking to increase portfolio diversification in the current outlook. Goldman Sachs found that 61% of respondents thought geopolitical conflict was
the greatest investment risk today.
However, other areas of concern are also emerging. Growing fiscal dominance alongside rising domestic political instability (cited by 39% of respondents to Goldman Sachs’ poll), has intensified the complexity facing family offices. Citi Wealth found that trade disputes/tariffs were respondents’ top concern (60%), followed by US–China relations (43%) and inflation (37%). Interest rates and market volatility both stood at 30%. The stability of the global financial system was cited by 29%. Surprisingly, the Middle East conflict (14%) and the Russia–Ukraine war (9%) were perceived as lesser threats than last year (25% and 16% respectively), indicating that markets already priced them in.
Family offices, which collectively manage assets estimated at $6 trillion worldwide according to UBS, are, in many ways, at the forefront of these changes. Europe and the UK in particular have taken fiscal steps that would have been seen as radical not long ago. For example, the European Commission proposed its ReArm initiative, while Germany agreed a historic political deal on defence investment and the removal of the debt brake.
Meanwhile, a peculiarly British problem
The screws tighten on non-doms as family offices expect more tax changes
The situation in the UK differs from the rest of the
world in some fairly significant ways. The first big hit to family wealth under the current government came on 30 October 2024, with the announcement of changes to inheritance tax (IHT), business property relief (BPR) and agricultural property relief (APR).
In particular, the removal of non-domicile (non-dom) status to a “residence-based” regime now means that individuals have to pay tax on their worldwide income and gains within a certain period.
This may have put the UK at a disadvantage compared to countries like Italy, which have a more pro-wealth approach to attract the mobile international wealthy, by having significantly longer tax holidays. And now, almost a year on, the country’s specific risks are rising due to increasing regulatory scrutiny and a weakening fiscal regime challenged by low growth, poor productivity leading to reduced tax revenues and pressure on public finances at a time when inflation remains sticky.
However, as noted by Bloomberg news, many family offices are, for now, staying put. This, of course, provides some relief to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves as her “tax the rich” policy has drawn criticism amid several high-profile departures
of wealthy business people from the UK.
Family offices face two major challenges. On the one hand, with the budget not being revealed until 26 November, they need to consider how best to plan around ongoing and new sanctions as well as restrictions on technology transfers that may affect portfolio allocations and liquidity plus how they meet existing legal and regulatory provisions. On the other, is how they help their clients prepare for this new budget.
The situation in the UK differs from the rest of the
world in some fairly significant ways. The first big hit to family wealth under the current government came on 30 October 2024, with the announcement of changes to inheritance tax (IHT), business property relief (BPR) and agricultural property relief (APR).
In particular, the removal of non-domicile (non-dom) status to a “residence-based” regime now means that individuals have to pay tax on their worldwide income and gains within a certain period.
This may have put the UK at a disadvantage compared to countries like Italy, which have a more pro-wealth approach to attract the mobile international wealthy, by having significantly longer tax holidays. And now, almost a year on, the country’s specific risks are rising due to increasing regulatory scrutiny and a weakening fiscal regime challenged by low growth, poor productivity leading to reduced tax revenues and pressure on public finances at a time when inflation remains sticky.
However, as noted by Bloomberg news, many family offices are, for now, staying put. This, of course, provides some relief to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves as her “tax the rich” policy has drawn criticism amid several high-profile departures
of wealthy business people from the UK.
Family offices face two major challenges. On the one hand, with the budget not being revealed until 26 November, they need to consider how best to plan around ongoing and new sanctions as well as restrictions on technology transfers that may affect portfolio allocations and liquidity plus how they meet existing legal and regulatory provisions. On the other, is how they help their clients prepare for this new budget.
The tax changes that may come in the new budget, particularly those related to Inheritance Tax (IHT) reliefs and the introduction of a progressive property tax system along with the limiting of lifetime gifting means that tackling family governance matters has never been more important. Relinquishing control of the family business or assets can be an unsettling experience. Conversations with the next generation will be required.
Where to adjust practices and portfolios?
Conclusion
What is clear is that tariffs are not going away. President Trump shows no sign of backing down, engaging in fresh retaliatory measures against China and piling pressure on other countries such as Brazil in his bid to reassert US dominance. Whether the much vaunted “TACO trade” is truly dead remains unclear. Regardless, tariffs and sanctions will remain tools of geopolitical and geoeconomic power for years to come. For investors, the risks are tilted to the downside.
As the IMF warned in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, further escalation of protectionist measures, including non-tariff barriers, could suppress investment, disrupt supply chains, and stifle productivity growth. Larger-than-expected shocks to labour supply, particularly from restrictive immigration policies, could reduce growth and risk deepening skill shortages, especially in ageing economies such as Europe. Fiscal vulnerabilities may raise borrowing costs and heighten rollover risks for sovereigns. In capital markets, a sharp repricing of tech stocks, triggered if AI-earnings disappoint, could mark an end to the AI investment bubble with more of a boom than a pop.
Rising long-term debt will test central banks, particularly the UK and US. Yet it is not all doom and gloom. Most major central banks, Japan aside, are likely to keep cutting rates, boosting liquidity and propping up risk assets worldwide.
As ever, investors need to stay disciplined: maintain diversified portfolios across asset, currency and sector exposures; balance risk with defensives; and keep an eye on where genuine productivity gains, particularly from AI, translate into lasting value. In a world of shifting alliances and persistent tariffs, agility will be the most valuable asset of all.
As the IMF warned in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, further escalation of protectionist measures, including non-tariff barriers, could suppress investment, disrupt supply chains, and stifle productivity growth. Larger-than-expected shocks to labour supply, particularly from restrictive immigration policies, could reduce growth and risk deepening skill shortages, especially in ageing economies such as Europe. Fiscal vulnerabilities may raise borrowing costs and heighten rollover risks for sovereigns. In capital markets, a sharp repricing of tech stocks, triggered if AI-earnings disappoint, could mark an end to the AI investment bubble with more of a boom than a pop.
Rising long-term debt will test central banks, particularly the UK and US. Yet it is not all doom and gloom. Most major central banks, Japan aside, are likely to keep cutting rates, boosting liquidity and propping up risk assets worldwide.
As ever, investors need to stay disciplined: maintain diversified portfolios across asset, currency and sector exposures; balance risk with defensives; and keep an eye on where genuine productivity gains, particularly from AI, translate into lasting value. In a world of shifting alliances and persistent tariffs, agility will be the most valuable asset of all.
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investments or related services that may be referenced here. Trading financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.
While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.